Tom Loverro, a former board member at Coinbase, has said the crypto bottom is not yet in, and prices will recover once “tourists” have been flashed.
The Crypto Winter is Getting Started
In a recent tweet, the former Coinbase board member based his predictions on his vast experiences. Since 2013, he has observed several booms and busts which shaped the crypto market and trader sentiment.
In his preview, many crypto venture capitals and investors are wrong to compare the current leg down to the drop in prices in early 2020. Then, BTC prices flash crashed below $4k as the market reacted to news of the COVID-19 pandemic and its high mortality rate.
The current crypto winter, he adds, is due to macroeconomic factors. For the first time, Bitcoin is reacting to market risks, highlighting its rapid growth over the past few years. After months of deliberately propping the markets against the adverse effects of the COVID-19 pandemic, the FED is shifting its stance, forcing rates higher to curb inflation.
Ideally, Bitcoin should respond positively to rising inflation. However, the asset is assessed by most analysts as risky. As inflation rises and the FED hike rates, crypto and stock markets are subjected to intense selling pressure.
When will Crypto Bottom?
According to Loverro, the crypto industry is cyclic.
Therefore, like in previous cycles, after the recent boom, the crypto market could remain in the cold until early or mid-2023 before recovering.
The market will, he explains, recover once prices are being moved organically by active investors and traders, not “tourists” who are speculating on assets. Meanwhile, only projects will real use cases will survive the cold, flourishing in the next bull cycle.
The bottom will come not during this current fear & loathing phase, but later, after indifference sets in, crypto is no longer making headlines, and the tourists have left. That process will take many months.
Surviving the winter
To survive this winter, Loverro advises projects and investors to have enough liquid cash to cover them for the next 36 months.
My advice now is: Have enough cash to get through the next 30-36 months and, even more importantly, sufficient FAITH to survive the winter without wavering or chasing new and non-crypto directions. Crypto will come back bigger than ever.
At the same time, they should trim exposure to blockchain projects propped by weak fundamentals.
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